Welcome

Australian Weather

This section will provide a direct set of data showing Australia’s current weather from Windy.com using the European ECMWF 9KM dataset, GFS 10km data through TropicalTidbits.com and BOM.gov.au with some regular forecast videos that are nuanced with solar/cosmic forcing.

Differences in Hemispheres

Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere and our weather systems are slightly different to those in the Northern Hemisphere. Key differences are the cell rotations or Low and High pressure are opposite to that of the Northern Hemisphere due to the Coriolis effect.

High Pressure rotates Counter Clockwise

High Pressure System

Low Pressure rotates Clockwise

Low Pressure System

Current Weather

The following from Windy.Com will show the current activity across Australia including expected rainfall/storms with wind and pressure. Both this and the next screens are interactive and you can use the Windy menu.

Temperature – Click your location for exact temps.

Rain Thunder Prediction – Click your location for today predicted rainfall

Wind Gusts – Click your area for current or forecast wind gusts

Current Australian Radar

Current Cloud Cover

Current and Short Term Snowfall- Click coloured regions for totals

Precipitation Totals – Click on your location for accumulated totals.

Anomalies – Anomalies denote the departure of an element from its long-period average value for the location concerned. The current international standard is to use the 30 year average from 1961 to 1990 as the long-term average.

Ultra Violet Light daily forecast – For those susceptible to sun burn.

Forecast Weather

4 Day Synoptic Chart from BOM.

Below is the live MSLP map current. This shows the linkage of the Southern Ocean and Indian Ocean pressure systems at sea level that are impacting Australia.

Tropical MSLP map

Australia’s weather drivers

Australia is in a unique location surrounded by two of the largest oceans in water circulation in the world, as well as being linked to the tropics. This means our weather is extremely variable and reliant upon the changes and cycles in the ocean surface temperatures.

Australia’s Weather patterns

ENSO – The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. On periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared to normal.

This oscillating warming and cooling pattern, referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather across the United States and other parts of the world. El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.

  • El Niño:  A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to become reduced while rainfall increases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”).  In general, the warmer the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger the El Niño (and vice-versa).
  • La Niña:  A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  Over Indonesia and Australia, rainfall tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger.  In general, the cooler the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger the La Niña (and vice-versa).
  • Neutral:  Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average.  However, there are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa).

ENSO History –

JMA http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino

ENSO Forecast –

Current multi agency 5 Month forecast – This currently shows a Double Dip LaNina pattern that would align with a Negative Indian Ocean Diapole, which would likely bring enhanced chances above average rainfall for large parts of the country. Please see long term prediction page for more on this.

IOD – The IOD involves an aperiodic oscillation of sea-surface temperatures (SST), between “positive”, “neutral” and “negative” phases. A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west.

http://www.bom.gov.au
http://www.bom.gov.au
http://www.bom.gov.au

IOD Forecast –

http://www.bom.gov.au

IOD History – Dipole Mode Index (DMI) time series representation
The thin and thick lines indicate monthly mean and three-month running mean DMI, respectively, while red and blue shading denotes positive and negative IOD periods, respectively. Hatched areas indicate positive and negative IOD events in concurrence with El Niño and La Niña events, respectively.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/iodevents.html

Southern Annular Mode or Antarctic Oscillation – (AAO, to distinguish it from the Arctic oscillation or AO), also known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), is a low-frequency mode of atmospheric variability of the southern hemisphere that is defined as a belt of strong westerly winds or low pressure surrounding Antarctica which moves north or south as its mode of variability.

It is a climate driver for Australia, influencing the country’s weather conditions – It is associated with storms and cold fronts that move from west to east that bring precipitation to southern Australia.

Summer SAM Negative

http://www.bom.gov.au

Summer SAM Positive

http://www.bom.gov.au

Winter SAM Negative

http://www.bom.gov.au

Winter SAM Positive

http://www.bom.gov.au

SAM/AAO History –

By LutrinaeH – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=96200710

SAM/AAO Forecast –

www.noaa.gov

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) – The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. It can be characterised as an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.

http://www.bom.gov.au